Indian Response to Asymmetric Threats: The Case of Af-Pak

Author:  TWI

'India has unfortunately become the "sponge" that protects us all. India's very proximity to Pakistan, which has developed into the epicenter of global terrorism during the last thirty years, has resulted in New Delhi absorbing most of the blows unleashed by those terrorist groups that treat it as a common enemy along with Israel, the United States, and the West more generally...'[1]

- Ashley J Tellis

The above statement is an oft-quoted observation that captures the inability of India to respond effectively to the challenge of terrorism afflicting it with sickening regularity. To the layman, the nation, in the face of grave losses in life, material and reputation inexplicably refuses to acknowledge the strategic impact of the ever-growing irregular and hybrid threat that is engulfing regions of the world. India’s counter to the threats it faces can be labelled reactive at best, despite the aggressiveness associated in social media with the National Security Adviser[2] and the Prime Minister. The much touted cross-border raid against NSCN militants[3] is too little, too late; but a heart-warming event nevertheless. However, can India call Pakistan’s bluff on the West?

Endgame in Afghanistan: Debating the Kashmir Connection

Author: TWI

“America is history, Karzai is history, the Taliban are the future… Pakistan would be unwise to cut all contacts and goodwill with the future leaders of Afghanistan” [1]

Lt Gen Hamid Gul

Former Chief of ISI

A

s the US and NATO’s misadventure in Afghanistan draws to a close with the promise of the withdrawal of their troops sooner than later, a debate gains ground on the possible implications of the US withdrawal, for the region in general and Kashmir in particular. That there will be a vacuum post the departure of the Americans is certain. Who will fill it in, and how will circumstances play out, remains a matter analysts worldwide are feeding-off at the moment. However, given the number of global and regional players involved, their mutual distrust, scant respect for honouring agreements and a preference for exploiting proxies makes the region a tangle where there are more questions than answers. Non State Actors with their proclivity for the capricious and whimsical rather than the predictable and anticipated and the power games that have come to characterise the expanse from Iran to Pakistan make the future uncertain. Presently, what appears achievable is a consideration of influencing factors, the nature and concerns - derived from history - of the thespians involved and the circumstances sanctioned for the next few years. This will help us arrive at a pragmatic appraisal of the future of Afghanistan and the implications, if any, for Kashmir.